Suppose time today is , and I enter into a contract to buy the underlying asset for at maturity date (I am in the long position of the contract). Recall that the payoff at maturity to my long position is . Here, is called the delivery price of the contract and must be fixed at the initiation of the contract.
- How should be chosen?
- What is the value of my long position in the contract?
- What is the difference between the current forward price and the delivery price ?
The answers to the above questions are related.
- If , then the value of my (long) position in the contract is . This is true by definition of the forward price; it is the delivery price such that it costs nothing (for both the buyer and the seller) to enter into the contract.
- If , then my payoff would be less than that in the 1st case since . The positive difference is exactly . Discounting it back to the present, this amount is exactly . I should be compensated by this amount today for the lesser amount at maturity (compared to the 1st case). So I should receive (positive cashflows) when entering into the position, so the value of this position is the negative of this amount, which is . This agrees with the formula in the lecture for the value of long forward contract.
- If , then my payoff would be more than that in the 1st case since . The positive difference is exactly . Discounting it back to the present, this amount is exactly . I should pay this amount to the seller today for the extra amount at maturity (compared to the 1st case). So I should pay (negative cashflows) when entering into the position, so the value of this position is the positive of this amount, which is . Again, this agrees with the formula in the lecture for the value of long forward contract.